Locked Up by a Lockup: Valuing Liquidity as a Real Option

Hedge funds often impose lockups and notice periods to limit the ability of investors to withdraw capital. We model the investor's decision to withdraw capital as a real option and treat lockups and notice periods as exercise restrictions. Our methodology incorporates time-varying probabilities of hedge fund failure and optimal early exercise. We estimate a two-year lockup with a three-month notice period costs approximately 1% of the initial investment for an investor with constant relative risk aversion utility and risk aversion of three. The cost of illiquidity can easily exceed 10% if the hedge fund manager can arbitrarily suspend withdrawals.     

On the incidence of commissions in auction markets

We analyze the welfare consequences of an increase in the commissions charged by intermediaries in auction markets. Commissions are similar to taxes imposed on buyers and sellers, and standard economics suggests that both sellers and buyers are made worse off by the tax. However, we show that when the buyers' participation constraint binds and when sellers set optimal reservation prices, the level of commissions correlates to participation and reservation prices in such a way that participating buyers strictly gain from higher commissions.     

The nature of informal food bazaars: Empirical results for Urban Hanoi,Vietnam

This paper aims to study the interesting phenomenon of informal food markets in urban areas, which have been neglected in the past research. Based on an empirical study of consumer choice between informal and formal markets (markets built-up by street hawkers vs. government-planned markets), this paper provides a basis for understanding the nature of informal markets in the Vietnamese context. The results show that cheap price and convenience (proximity) are important in shaping the choice by consumers for informal markets for food, while close relationship with sellers or services provided by sellers are not. Shoppers with higher concern for freshness and safety of fresh food are more likely to shop at formal markets. Additionally, low-income shoppers are found significantly inclined toward informal markets, while higher-income shoppers tend to shop at formal markets. Therefore, these two types of market should be viewed as two marketplaces to serve two segments of consumer groups, rather than two markets competing for a share of the business.     

Towards a New Trade Policy Between the USA and Middle‐East Countries:Estimating Trade Resistance and Export Potential

At the time of the conclusion of free trade areas (FTAs) between the USA and Middle‐East and North African (MENA) countries, there is a lack of literature concerning the measurement of the current US export position with regards to these countries, and the US export potential in this area. From recent developments of gravity models, this paper derives an estimable equation which includes various trade resistance variables, notably border effects, multilateral resistance as well as specific bilateral effects. The model is tested in order to scrutinise the impact of these variables on US exports to MENA countries, as well as the US export potential in this area. To that end, a selection of panel data specifications is proposed, mainly Hausman and Taylor models as well as Arellano and Bond dynamic models. Results unambiguously indicate that as compared to the other OECD countries, the USA suffers from a substantial trade integration deficit with MENA countries. This is reflected by the strongly negative values of the US‐MENA bilateral fixed effects, as well as the high bilateral border effects. In addition, the estimated actual/potential US export ratio to these countries is only 0.76. Therefore, implementing an FTA between the USA and MENA countries may allow the former to progressively improve its export position in this area. This would also help MENA countries diversify their supplying sources.     

What Causes Banking Crises? An Empirical Investigation for the World Economy

We add the Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist model to a world model consisting of the US, the Euro-zone and the Rest of the World in order to explore the causes of the banking crisis. We test the model against linear-detrended data and reestimate it by indirect inference; the resulting model passes the Wald test only on outputs in the two countries. We then extract the model’s implied residuals on unfiltered data to replicate how the model predicts the crisis. Banking shocks worsen the crisis but ‘traditional’ shocks explain the bulk of the crisis; the non-stationarity of the productivity shocks plays a key role. Crises occur when there is a ‘run’ of bad shocks; based on this sample Great Recessions occur on average once every quarter century. Financial shocks on their own, even when extreme, do not cause crises—provided the government acts swiftly to counteract such a shock as happened in this sample.     

Environmental turbulence and the functions of budgetary control

While budgetary control is a potentially significant tool when the economic environment is unstable and unpredictable, the analysis of its development demonstrates that its use has dramatically expanded over the time since companies have been able to run forecasts. In order to help them develop budgetary control, companies have implemented strategies that have reduced risks and hence improved their ability to make accurate forecasts. Such strategies have taken many forms and varied from one firm to another. They materialized as various types of agreement, including cartels, through strategies to effect market leadership, or via policies of nationalization. In those companies where the environment was stable and risk limitation was not important, budgetary control could be used for various internal purposes. In this respect, the analysis of the management of companies helps us to identify the purposes for which budgetary control is utilized. It is found that budgetary control allows for greater expansion opportunities and provides the means to strengthen the control of management within major companies. Our observations highlight a contradictory aspect of budgetary control: while it is relevant within an unstable environment, it performs best in an environment which is highly managed.     

“楼宇经济”生存环境及发展的实证研究

“楼宇经济”当前成为经济发展的亮点,吸引着许多城市不断推出发展“楼宇经济”的规划。“楼宇经济”是经济、社会发展到一定阶段的产物,是知识与经济相结合、企业经营方式转变的结果,具有集聚性、辐射性、“体制外性”、流动性等特点。“楼宇经济”形成和发展所依靠的不仅仅是建筑,需要有一定的经济、文化沉淀的环境和金融、交通、信息、人才、社会等综合“区域生态”因素的支撑。本文以上海静安区的“楼宇”调研为主要依据,对“楼宇”及“楼宇经济”形成的条件、特点以及完善,进行粗浅的探索。     

Das neue Energiewirtschaftsgesetz—Regelungen für einen erweiterten Zielkatalog

Mehr als ein Jahr nach dem EU-rechtlich vorgegebenen Endtermin wurde im Juli 2005 das neue Energiewirtschaftsgesetz verabschiedet. Von welchen Zielen geht dieses Gesetz aus? Wie lauten seine wichtigsten Neuregelungen? Und welche Auswirkungen sind von ihnen zu erwarten?